COVID-19 - Is the cure worse than the disease? An open letter to our leaders.

In just over a month's time, this nation has gone from high-flying normalcy to a grim situation which I believe has not yet reached its nadir. The US stock market has lost one third of its value, infections and deaths from the corona-virus have increased and, at the recommendation of Federal and State authorities, massive numbers of business have essentially shut down. At least four states have declared a state of emergency whereby only critical and essential businesses may operate. I expect that many other states will soon follow. That would be a sad and irresponsible move by the governors of those states.

The authorities are in a precarious position, wedged between political correctness and the inevitability of "not doing enough, soon enough". I understand this. Mass and instantaneous media makes their decisions much more difficult with pundits, frightened citizens and the toxic Twitterverse questioning their every decision and blaming them for every slip and blunder which is inevitable in the fog of war.

This past week (March 16-20), we have seen two huge bills pass the House and the Senate and get signed into law by the President. The first addressed a number of financial issues and the second one deals more with workers benefits. A third package is due out on Sunday or Monday and is supposed to help small and medium sized businesses. Let's pray that they do not help us too much!

It is said that what doesn't kill you makes you stronger. That may be true in movies and in legends, but in normal day-to-day life, if it kills you or your business, it means death. Death is final. Being stronger doesn't matter if you are dead or if your business is dead.

By stopping all gathering of groups of more than 10 people, they have killed off the sports industry, the entertainment industry and the hospitality industry. Dying along side it is the airline industry and large swaths of transportation and the cruise business.

Seventy percent (70%!!!!!) of the value of the US economy comes from consumer spending. We have a $20 trillion economy. That is twenty million million! The Feds are proposing to send checks to individuals so that they will spend money and help the economy. Seriously? Where are they going to spend it? Take out food, Amazon or expenses? That is about it. A business has to be open in order to accept your money.

The Families First Coronavirus Act (FFCA), the second law, mandates between 80 hours to 12 weeks of sick pay for employees in a variety of situations. This is to be paid directly by the employer, who, by this point, is not likely to have a whole lot of business coming in. The payback is to occur somehow by issuing tax credits against FICA payment liabilities. I am not a math genius, but I don't think the numbers really add up with this plan. The majority of small business exist off of cash flow, and the minute that flow is interrupted, trouble soon follows.

The authorities need to straighten this situation out, and soon. I get the reasoning. Keep people separated so that this highly contagious virus will not be able to spread very quickly. A slow growth in the rate of infection should keep the strain on our medical system at a manageable level. However, we cannot allow them to kill our economy, and by closing most small and medium businesses, that is what is going to happen. Many business which are hurt by the mandatory closures will never recover.

And it is not only businesses. Think about churches and other non-profits. Most are barely making it now. Remove paying "customers" and they become zombies. The first federal dime that makes it to a Christian church to keep it and their staff employed will have the usual suspects running to the courthouses (when they open back up) to plead for justice. It isn't going to be pretty.

So, what to do? One option that might work is to enlist the help of everyone in the nation who is under forty years of age and have them come back to work. Immediately. This cohort of citizens are much less likely to become extremely sick or to die. They can (and should) practice the new normal of personal sanitation, hand washing, masks if they are getting sick, maintaining some distance between people, etc. The ones who should be quarantined and restricted are older folks and those who have compromised immune systems. Many older people are still working and are reasonably healthy. These are the folks who should be working from home, not the 27 year old shipping clerk. In many cases, the older workers are in management which lends itself to remote work. Those in their 50s and 60s who are hands-on can consult from home or just take an enforced "staycation". It is better to lose 10% of the workforce than 100%.

Children are being kept home from schools. Again, I get the reason. In the best of times, our schools are a bigger cauldron of germs than a Princess cruise ship. Allow younger teachers to teach our children, let the older management stay home and telework or teleteach. Hey, it is the new normal. Build isolation centers on premise if needed and if remote work is not feasible. Think outside the box but stay inside of it!

Young people can stay away from nursing homes, hospitals, and places where seniors live and gather until this passes. Some stores now are wiping down and restocking at night, then they allow seniors to shop for an hour in the morning before everyone else is let in. This is a fantastic idea. It allows some separation without isolation.

As a business owner, after this week, I am suddenly worried and see the current governmental action as an existential threat to my business and my lifelong investment. This is not trivial and there are hundreds of thousands of folks like me who employ millions of people and upon whom millions more depend for essential services and products.

This nation is its people and its people must work. The government cannot sustain tens of millions of unemployed people. This is especially true when so very few of these people have ever gone without and have become extremely accustomed to necessities, which a generation ago would have been deemed luxuries. Subsidies cannot pay for all of this for everyone.

It is time to tighten up and buckle down. The world is on a war footing, fighting a common enemy. Times have changed but we have to remember that we are fighting to defend our way of life. If we destroy our way of life in order to merely survive, have we truly won the war?

Think bold, but think deep. Let your heart guide you but let your clear mind be the deciding factor. We can get through this and put our nation back together by the end of summer. We all want to survive and that includes our millions of businesses.