Sometimes the blind squirrel loses the nut

I am reading a book called The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels by Alex Epstein. In it, the author goes over some of the doomy and gloomy predictions the Cassandras of the 1970s and 1980s made and how they were not only completely off on the timeline, but they were totally 180 degrees out of sync with what has happened to the supply of oil, coal and natural gas in the years hence.

It occurred to me while reading, that if Jimmy Carter had been Barack Obama and somehow could have waved a magic wand and cut fossil fuel use by 80% after the early and dire predictions had been heeded, then these doomsayers, such as Paul Ehrlich and James Hansen, would have been regarded as prophets and savers of the planet.

As it was, their voices were largely ignored by the vast majority of the world, the oceans didn't rise, England didn't burn up and waste away by 2000 and not only have we avoided mass starvation, but the population of the earth has continued to increase and the quality of life has only improved (except in and around Syria.)

Careful effecting causation to outcome.


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